In the future, we might reach a point where the amount of things being moved around the world will reach its highest level and then start to decrease. When I say “things,” I mean stuff like fuel, coal, goods on ships, food, and materials.
New technologies are helping us make energy, food, and products where they’re needed, instead of relying so much on moving them around the world.
Trading physical stuff has been a big part of globalization. So, if we see less stuff being moved around, it could mean we’re getting close to the peak of globalization.
But even if the movement of stuff slows down, the movement of people, information, data, and ideas around the world keeps growing fast and will likely keep growing for a long time.
Reaching peak globalization could help us keep the good parts of being connected globally, like boosting the economy and helping the environment. It could also give more power to individuals and communities to make democratic decisions.
At the same time, some of the problems with globalization might get better. For example, we might not have to send as much money to countries that produce energy, and fewer jobs might be lost to places like China where things are made cheaply. This change could help people who haven’t done well because of globalization and ease tensions in countries where people are feeling left out.
New Tech and Businesses: Digital, Democratic, Decentralized
New technologies and innovative businesses are driving us towards peak globalization by enabling “production-at-the-point-of-consumption” for energy, food, and products.
Exponential technologies, thanks to Moore’s Law, have drastically reduced the cost of starting businesses. The microchip, for instance, has improved 100 billion times in 40 years, making the production cost of digitized items almost zero.
For example, while a physical book incurs costs for materials, printing, and shipping, digital copies like e-books have nearly zero marginal cost as they are simply digital files sent over the Internet. Smartphones provide access to a wide range of capabilities like artificial intelligence, geolocation, and free global video calls.
These advancements have not only empowered individuals but also transformed businesses. Small teams now have access to sophisticated tools once reserved for large organizations, thanks to digital platforms like the internet, GPS, and services provided by tech giants such as Google, Apple, and Amazon.
A startup using AI doesn’t need to buy its own big computer system. Instead, it can rent one from Amazon. This lets small teams do big projects without spending a lot of money. And it’s not just in software—similar things are happening in making physical stuff too. People can use 3D printers or other machines to make prototypes in a garage or shared workspace and then sell or share their designs online.
These are just some early examples of what we’ll see more of in the future. They’ll change how things are made and shipped around the world.
The old way was to have big factories and farms in specific places, where everything was made or grown in large amounts. But the new way lets smaller places make things too, because they can use technology to do it more easily.
Let’s look at the three big things people trade around the world—products, energy, and food—to see how this is happening.
Products
3D printing, or additive manufacturing, allows for manufacturing items close to where they’re needed, reducing supply chains and factory production lines.
Product designs being digital means they can be used anytime to guide printers. Unlike traditional assembly lines, 3D printers can make different items each time they print, even entire finished products or fewer parts for bigger items like engines, cutting assembly costs.
Each item can be customized and made on demand, eliminating the need for storing or shipping items long distances. 3D printing also creates items with minimal waste, unlike traditional methods.
It’s adaptable, from low-cost printers for homes to expensive ones for big manufacturing. There are even printers for making buildings.
Though there are challenges like speed and quality, as the technology improves, it’ll likely make a wider range of items, from human tissue to household goods to industrial parts.
Ultimately, 3D printing will be a versatile technology using different printers and materials for various things, including human organs, household goods, and industrial parts.
Energy
Renewable energy is usually generated close to where it’s used, like solar, wind, and geothermal power. Unlike fossil fuels, which need to be transported around the world, renewable energy sources are mostly used where they’re produced.
The best part is, the fuel for renewable energy—like sunlight and wind—is free forever. This means people using solar and wind power don’t need to worry about prices going up or fuel supplies getting disrupted because of politics, markets, or natural disasters.
Renewable energy does have some issues, like it’s not always available and storing it can be tricky. Right now, it works best when combined with other sources, like natural gas, which can be turned on and off easily and produces fewer emissions than coal.
In the future, these issues with renewable energy are likely to be solved or made better. Solar energy, for example, can be used on small scales, like putting solar panels on houses or cars, or large scales, like building solar farms. It can even be used with microgrids and allow homes and communities to generate their own electricity.
It might take a while before we can stop using fossil fuels completely, but renewable energy costs are dropping fast. Solar energy, especially, is becoming more efficient and cheaper. Eventually, renewable energy will be much cheaper than fossil fuels, especially when we consider things like carbon emissions and environmental damage from fossil fuels.
Food
Food can be grown closer to where people live using methods like vertical farms. Eventually, we might even have printed food or meat grown in labs.
These methods bring food production right to the consumer, so it costs less to transport food. They also use much less land and water, and they cut energy use by almost half. Plus, they don’t need fertilizers or pesticides, and they can grow food all year round, no matter the weather.
While it might not work for growing grains or corn, it’s great for growing many fruits and vegetables. And scientists are working on making meat in labs from animal cells, which could help cut down on the number of animals raised for food. This would also reduce the amount of land, water, and energy needed for farming.
